A just released poll indicates that Herman Cain and Mitt Romney are in a dead heat among Republicans likely to vote in the January nominating caucus. So, does this automatically mean that its’ a Romney-Cain showdown in Iowa?
Given the less than sterling response from the Republican base about any candidate, I wouldn’t count any Republican candidate out, though Rick Santorum and my personal Republican favorite John Huntsman are far back in the polls. Polls can lie because they rely on the assumption that people are truthful, which isn’t always the case.
Further, Iowa in the last three decades hasn’t exactly had the pulse of America in the caucuses, as I pointed out in Caucus in the Corn available here: http://wwwbookdiplomacy.blogspot.com/2011/07/caucus-in-corn.html. A victory by any candidate should not be considered a death blow unless you’ve based your entire campaign upon the state…see Rick Santorum.
Many men have won in Iowa on their way to not becoming the nominee. Furthermore, the caucus is in two months. We’ve seen campaigns fall apart over one scream and a bizarre geography bee by Howard Dean. Campaigns can rise and fall in the next two months. Right now, its’ too close to call.