Friday, October 28, 2011

Herman Cain, Republican Nominee?

That’s the question Christian Science Monitor had earlier this week: Can Herman Cain win the Republican Presidential Nomination?

 Well technically, one could create a scenario where Rick Santorum wins the nomination, but assuming one is moving beyond the notion of “can” and into a probabilistic formulation, as much as I disagree with Herman Cain’s positions, I think he has a chance to win the nomination.

To win the nomination, he has to make it through the Republican primary process. Primary voters are typically more politically aware and ideologically driven than the electorate at large. At the moment, the Republican electorate appears to be quite fired up at the prospect of Herman Cain and the simplicity of his 9-9-9 tax plan.

 There is definitely something to be said for simplifying things in a contest where there are a bunch of men who seem to enjoy tossing around fifty dollar words and accusations about people’s gardeners.

My challenge for Herman Cain is that sound bites on the campaign trail like 9-9-9 are great for getting votes to win the election, but what happens when the reality of Congress smacks him in the face?

Tax reform is required campaign speak, but has often fallen flat in Congress, what makes Cain so different? Barack Obama spoke of hope and change four years ago and we’ve seen what happens when the electoral message meets political reality.

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