Friday, August 5, 2011

A Syrian Stalemate?

Weeks of protest and brutal crackdowns by the military forces loyal to Bashir al-Assad have left us with something of a stalemate between the two sides as the Muslim holy month of Ramadan continues. As most Western governments hold hearings or offer condemnations, the assaults on Hama continue to cost lives on a daily basis. Despite the crackdown by Assad, the will of the protesters remains undeterred. Hama has a history of opposing the Assad family dictatorship back in the mid eighties. Assad has the military muscle here, but increasing civilian casualties, which numbered more than 2000 will increase anger and dissatisfaction in the streets and has drawn the ire of Western governments.

What will break the stalemate? Don’t look for much help from the UN. Syrian buddies Russia and China will block any meaningful sanction from the security council should we get to that point and NATO is still trying to get a handle on situation in Libya, so they are also probably a no go. It’s likely at this point that the opposing forces in Syria will be left to settle the conflict among themselves. What will be interesting to watch is the other regions within Syria. If they back Assad, than I expect an eventual Assad victory with thousands of further casualties. If they rebel against Assad, then its’ really up to the armed forces because per the old historical saying “Whomever controls the army, is the one who will remain in charge.

No comments:

Post a Comment