Mitt Romney: Man in Shadows

My understanding of the 2012 Presidential Election was that it was supposed to be a contest between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama.

With the selection of Paul Ryan, it feels as though Romney has perhaps unintentionally pushed himself into the shadows of his own presidential campaign, which is never a good sign.

I get that both sides are excited about Paul Ryan for good or bad, but I’m almost expecting Romney to raise his hands up as if to say “I’m right here.”

Again, its’ never a great sign when the VP overshadows the candidate.

As a matter of fact, it would probably help Romney to be out-front because he wants people to vote for Mitt Romney and his policies, rather than against Paul Ryan.

Paul Ryan only becomes president in the event something happens to Mitt Romney. People don’t vote for vice presidents, but they can cause them to vote against presidents and presidential candidates.

The Romney VP pick: Putting States in Play

Come back tomorrow for discussion of Mitt Romney's selection of Paul Ryan, This was written before the selection was made.

There has been some discussion that Mitt Romney would pick a Rob Portman, Marco Rubio, or Paul Ryan in order to put the states of Ohio, Florida, and Wisconsin into play.

While all three figures enjoy great popularity within their home states, Romney has to be that he doesn’t make a pick that puts a state out of play. He doesn’t have far to go for a blue print on how to accomplish that feat…SEE PALIN, SARAH 2008.

I’d be particularly worried about picking Paul Ryan because of the coverage he’s gotten for his budget plans.

There aren’t a ton of states in play. Making a safe pick like Rob Portman may be the better way to go instead of a firebrand like Paul Ryan because he could provide a boost in the state of Ohio and has unquestioned experience as a law-maker.

He may not be as exciting as a Rubio or Ryan, but excitement isn’t necessarily what Romney needs.Romney needs to coherently explain how his policy is different from President Obama. Who the VP is should be the least of Romney’s problems.

Romney vs. Cameron: Olympic Smackdown

Mitt Romney ran the Salt Lake City Olympics in 2002 and is apparently an avid fan of the Olympics.

He raised the ire of our British friends recently when he questioned the readiness of the city of London to put on the Games. This prompted British Prime Minister David Cameron to quip “Of course it’s easier if you hold an Olympic Games in the middle of nowhere.”

It should be noted that since this incident the London Games have endured a badminton scandal and someone lost the keys to Wimbley Stadium. Not exactly sterling silver material.

The Olympics is a difficult event to secure, out of sheer size if nothing else. The challenges facing London and Salt Lake City are different, and I’m not sure that we can equalize the expieriances.

Call it draw between the Prime Minister and the Republican Nominee.

Mitt Romney’s Tax Problem

Can Mitt Romney help himself at all?

 Before the Colorado shooting diverted everyone’s attention, Romney was being peppered to release more than the two years of tax returns that he’s make available.

The Romney campaign cites this as the standard of the 2008 campaign. While this may be true, Romney just looks like a man with something to hide by not doing it.

Just release the returns, Mr. Romney and the story goes away, unless it doesn’t.

My personal guess is that Romney’s tax returns from previous years would show that he’s had money spread in all kinds of offshore bank accounts and holdings. Romney certainly wouldn’t want that to get out since it would mean that part of the Obama campaigns big attack is true.

These accusations could be damaging to the Romney campaign given the Obama campaigns efforts to paint him as a big business elitist whose out of touch with the middle class.

The Marco Rubio Question

Well Mitt Romney may or may not be vetting Marco Rubio as a potential running mate, depending on who you believe.

Senator Rubio seemed more interested in hawking his recently released memoir on this Sunday’s Meet the Press than engaging in speculation about the Vice Presidential nomination.

In politics, there is no such thing as a perfect candidate.

Picking Senator Rubio has many advantages.

 First, he’s a popular senator from a battleground state (Florida.)

Secondly, because of his Hispanic heritage, he may be able to help Romney make inroads among the Hispanic voters that will play a key role in determining who the president is in January of 2013.

Rubio also comes with a fair number of risks.

 Going with a fresh name doesn’t always pay dividends. John Mccain picked Sarah Palin as his running mate, and although she pleased the base, she inspired a fury among Democrats and Moderates.

 Your VP selection should not alienate potential voters.

 Secondly, Marco Rubio hasn’t even served a full term in the Senate yet.

President Obama had similar experience when vaulting to the presidency and  many Republicans chide him for creating the worst presidency since Jimmy Carter.

Yet some Republicans want to put a man of comparable experience one seat from the presidency? I haven’t seen Rubio do enough for me to put my faith in his ability to be president.

When Politics Forgets About People

It is not an uncommon view to say that politicians have forgotten about the people in the pursuit of high office and money from special interest groups.

 When politicians discuss issues like jobs, education, and immigration, they seem to know the line of electability “we need more ______________, but they fail to understand that there are people behind these statements who need something beyond electoral buzzwords.

Even worse, a candidate for president went throughout the Southern United States blithering about cheesy grits as though the great people of Alabama and Mississippi were ignorant children needing to be talked down to.

Those people are people whose votes you need, you might want to act like you give a damn.

No party is above contempt in this regard, a great number of Democrats also treat their perspective voters as misbehaving children too.

How would the Romneys and Obamas of the world like it, if we just walked up to them, patted them on the head and cooed “That’s a good little presidential candidate”?

The Notion of Playing Politics

When President Obama announced the change to his immigration policy on Friday, Mitt Romney was quick to call it “playing politics.”

 There’s an election in four months, just in case you missed the memo.

 Of course, this is a political move. Mitt Romney, we didn’t need you to tell us this.

 By the way, Mitt Romney having been the Governor of Massachusetts are you trying to imply that you never did anything to give yourself a political advantage?

 If your implying that, I’m prepared to call you a liar.

My larger point is not engage immigration itself, but rather the concept of “playing politics.” It’s always baffling when one party does something, then the other party calls it playing politics.

Apparently, they forgot their own record during previous administrations. What makes one party superior than the other?

 Republicans play politics every bit as much as Democrats.

This whole notion of “playing politics” during a presidential election just smacks of trying to pander for votes, among people who don’t give much thought to politics.

Playing politics is what politicians do, so both parties need to stop playing the victim.

Romney’s endorsement Binge

Mitt Romney has been the recipient of a quite a number of big endorsements lately. In the last few weeks, he’s picked up the endorsements of George H.W. and Jeb Bush. Additionally, he secured the endorsement of Tea Party favorite, Marco Rubio in Florida.

These endorsements may soothe the anxieties among the Republican party faithful. But does a such closing of the ranks actually do much to help Mitt Romney at the ballot box, particularly during the November general election, given the political disillusionment in America?

Although I still maintain that endorsements don’t really matter. Romney’s people are being very smart in that many of his endorsers are popular figures without firm ties to the current ties in Washington.

This allows Romney to portray himself as the Washington outsider, yet give him some credibility as someone who can undertake the difficult task of being President of the United States.

 The news media has made a big deal out of the lack of sitting Republicans endorsing candidates…

With all the mistrust and hatred of Washington D.C. politicians would you want to be known as the “ESTABLISHMENT candidate for President”?

Illinois Primary: Romney Home Game

I know I’ve overshot the Illinois Presidential primary by a mile, but its’ my home state, so please give a blogger some latitude.

Illinois may actually serve as a microcosm for the rest of the primary contests [well before last night]. The demographics in Illinois are not dramatically different.  Romney wins with moderate, pragmatic, Republicans, while Santorum does well with more ideologically driven Republicans.

 However, in Illinois, the numbers have shifted in Romney’s favor. Illinois Republicans are quite practical in nature and less swayed by Santorum’s ideological rhetoric as explained by former Governor Jim Edgar.

Source: http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Elections/President/2012/0319/Why-Illinois-primary-could-finally-give-Mitt-Romney-momentum

Illinois may serve as an indicator of future primary results, If true, the signs are ominous for Rick Santorum.

 Santorum will continue to do well in more ideologically driven states, while Romney will pick up states packed with moderate Republicans. This divide will send Romney to the Republican nomination eventually, and reduce Santorum to a blocker role.

 Santorum just couldn’t win enough moderate voters at the end of the day.

When Romney Goes South

Mitt Romney appears headed to the Republican Presidential nomination, despite having not won a single Southern state, why is Mitt Romney so snake bitten in Southern primaries?

 First, voters in deep Southern states like Mississippi and Louisiana are largely conservative evangelicals- a group that Romney has struggled to connect with. Romney’s disconnection with Southern voters has served to draw out the Republican nomination process and give hope to Rick Santorum of forcing a convention showdown.

I think the Romney-South disconnection will resolve in the general election because the Southern United States leans heavily Republican during Presidential elections. There’s little doubt that Romney can beat Obama down south in a one on one election.

 But Romney fails to help himself with southern voters when he shoots off at the mouth about things like cheesy grits. It makes him sound really artificial and fake.

 Southerners are genuine people who don’t enjoy being talked to like their small children.

Perhaps Romney should worry more about Southern voters perceptions of him than cheesy grits and etch-a-sketches.

Does Romney’s Political Career Depend on Tuesday?

Running for the presidency of the United States is generally the highlight of a politicians political career. The question has been asked; “If Mitt Romney doesn’t win in Michigan and Arizona on Tuesday is his political career over”?

 Well, we are firstly assuming that Romney would not run for a seat in Congress or a state seat in Massachusetts. Overall though, I believe Tuesday is not an absolute game-breaker for Mitt Romney because of the teeter totter that is the Republican nominating process.

I guess the assumption would be that Rick Santorum would win both Arizona and Michigan and use the momentum to roll through the other states. Unlikely.

 No candidate has gotten on any sort of sustained roll. A candidate wins a few states and is promptly stopped in his tracks. Mitt Romney was a sure thing himself less than six weeks ago before key wins by Gingrich and Santorum. Now Santorum is surging, but if Romney wins, than is he the presumptive nominee again?

The process of delegate allocation will probably block any candidate from getting to 1100 delegates they need to be the nominee. Which means I’ll see you at the convention.

Does Romney have a Midwest Problem?

Mitt Romney has won three states: New Hampshire, Nevada, Florida, and perhaps Maine. This list of primaries is impressive, but I can’t help but notice that there have been three contests held in Midwestern states and that Romney hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire in at least two of the three.

 In Minnesota, he finished third behind Rick Santorum and Ron Paul. In Missouri, he was blown out by Rick Santorum. Then there was his narrow loss in Iowa. There’s something about Romney that has failed to connect with Midwestern voters at least at this point.

 If Romney can’t make some headway in the heartland, his candidacy is in trouble.

Because of the electoral college, candidates tend to focus on states with big delegate prizes. While this approach is not exactly improper from a candidates perspective, I mean you want to win the electoral college and the Presidency, so of course, you would pay special attention to California, Texas, New York, Florida, etc.

 But it can be equally problematic for a candidate to be uncompetitive in a specific region of the country. We see this when Republican candidates win large swathes of the southern United States.

Consider  2008 where John McCain was largely non-competitive in the West.

Regional non-competitiveness can doom a presidential campaign.

Romney wins CPAC Straw Poll

The same day as Mitt Romney won the Maine Caucus, he won the straw poll at the Conservative Political Action Committee. Even this did not come without controversy as Rick Santorum alleged that the Romney campaign bussed supporters into the event to vote in the poll. I wouldn’t put too much stock or faith in the results, if I were Romney or Santorum.

Straw polls tell us nothing. Michelle Bachmann won the Ames Straw Poll. That was easily the highlight of her entire campaign. Romney won a poll of the group of conservatives assembled in that particular location.

 Labels like liberal and conservative are not absolutist stamps. There are different flavors of each. One can be socially liberal or socially conservative. Economically liberal or economically conservative. Hell, a conservative in the Western U.S. isn’t the same as a conservative in the South or Midwest.

Madness in Maine

Mitt Romney defeated Ron Paul by 194 votes last Saturday in the Maine Caucus. This victory still appears in doubt because Washington County cancelled its caucus due to weather and several counties who scheduled their caucuses for after February 12 have not had their vote totals included. Even worse, some counties that did caucus did not have their totals listed in the final count.

Now, a full recount is unlikely because these caucuses are run by the Republican party within the state of Maine, rather then the national Republican party. Maine is largely a beauty contest where results are non-binding in terms of selecting delegates--that’s a second state run process.

Source: http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/The-Vote/2012/0215/Should-Ron-Paul-demand-a-new-vote-count-in-Maine.

If I was a Republican, I would be embarrassed. This is the second caucus state officials may have screwed up. This makes the party look incompetent on some level. This is the party that wants to unseat President Obama, but yet screws up their nominating process in at least one, if not two states.

This has serious repercussions for voters, why should anyone go to a caucus or primary, if the state party apparatus can make such a mess of things? Voters want to know that their vote matters and the results are tallied accurately.

Without this, the party opens itself to conspiracy theorists, who would claim some pro-Romney agenda. I am not touching that one.

Romney's Michigan Moment

Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign has issues. First, he is unexpectedly swept by Rick Santorum in three February 7^th contests [more on this later this week.] then he wins?Maine by 194 votes over Ron Paul.

 Now, Mitt Romney is trailing Rick Santorum in Michigan ahead of the states February 28^th primary contest. On paper, this should be a slam dunk for Romney, he was born in the state and his father was once the governor of the state.

I call this a must win for Romney because how do the Republicans as a party nominate a man for the presidency who can’t even win a state, he has such personal ties to? If he can’t win in Michigan, questions reign about his candidacy.

 He hasn’t won a single state in the Midwest and only holds concrete wins in Nevada, New Hampshire, and Florida [See note on Maine above.] If you cannot win essentially a home state, how can we trust that you can beat President Obama in a general election?

Ask Al Gore failing to get the home-state win has disastrous consequences.

Donald Trumps Endorses Romney

Yesterday Donald Trump endorsed Mitt Romney…yawn. A rich white guy who appeals to the fringe of the Republican party making an endorsement. Trump was probably more concerned about his own bottom line and image rather than the presidential race itself. He has a new season of The Apprentice premiering soon after the Super Bowl? That had probably had nothing to do with the timing of this [eye roll.] Not like Romney needs help in the Nevada Caucuses. Yet, the news media had to go into a virtual orgasm over the news.

New Hampshire: Huntsman’s Last Stand?

Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman is betting everything on Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary.

Huntsman made a calculated, and I believe correct call to bypass the Iowa Caucus. The large numbers of prevalence of evangelical voters within Iowa would’ve made a sustained campaign by the moderate Huntsman futile because he isn’t conservative enough to appeal to the primary voters in Iowa.

This leaves Huntsman camping in New Hampshire, hoping for an eleventh hour miracle to salvage his presidential campaign. If Huntsman doesn’t win there, his campaign is effectively over because he has staked so much on the state.

 At the moment, Mitt Romney holds a commanding lead over Ron Paul and others. Too bad, because Huntsman is my preferred Republican presidential candidate.

Huntsman is a moderate, something the Republican party seems to be lacking these days. He has intimate knowledge of China and the challenges that the United States will face there in the coming years and decades.

As governor of Utah, he has experience being the chief executive of state, one of the key criticisms of our current president.

The Republican party is failing to grasp that they need a moderate to win, and I’m not sure I’d put my faith in Massachusetts Mitt, if I were them.

Mitt Romney: John Kerry of 2012

Congratulations Mitt Romney, you’ve won the Iowa Caucus and stand poised for a crushing victory in New Hampshire on Tuesday. Your well on your way to becoming the 2012 version of John Kerry.

John Kerry won Iowa and New Hampshire, fending off a marginal challenge from John Edwards before feeding on a delegate buffet to win the Democratic presidential nomination in 2004.

Turns out John Kerry was not very popular with moderate and independent voters and lost the general election to President Bush, despite his overwhelming support among Democratic primary and caucus goers.

This should raise alarm bells for Romney. I don’t see any current candidate who challenges Romney at the primary level, beyond a token state or two. This means that like John Kerry, he’ll rack up a huge number of delegates and win the nomination.

But Romney has a huge problem with the conservative wings of the party that question his conservative credentials. He was governor of Massachusetts, a state where extreme Republicans get eaten for lunch, if that’s a clue.

An uninspiring candidate will just as easily reelect an unpopular president, just ask John Kerry. That’s the road Romney risks traveling, if he can’t win over conservative voters.

Why Not Ron Paul?

Four words that I never thought I’d utter. Ron Paul has been treated more as a third candidate sideshow behind Mitt Romney and whomever is occupying the favorite candidate of the month position. However, it is exactly because of the unsettled, chaotic nature of the race that Ron Paul may pull off an Iowa surprise.

 He has strong organizational system and a youthful and excited base of supporters who carry their signs and just might be willing to turn out and vote on caucus day. And in a race where every vote matters: turnout is the kingmaker.

Iowa hasn’t exactly shied away from the unconventional candidate choices before. While Ron Paul may not be a winning candidate ultimately, I believe he has the goods to compete in Iowa, particularly among the young and disaffected voter who see him as a man of different ideas than the status quo.

 In a race where it pays not to be Mitt Romney someone is going to have delegates at the convention that allow them to speak loudly. Maybe Ron Paul gets an eleventh hour surge and defeats Mitt Romney in Iowa and can then ride a domino wave in New Hampshire. Similar things have happened before, everyone remember John Kerry in 2004, he won Iowa and then swept most everything else to win the Democratic nomination.

In electoral politics a big guy named Mo plays kingmaker.

Romney By Default?

Mitt Romney has been picking up a lot of major endorsements from key Tea Party figures like South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley and Christine O’Donnell, prompting some to question whether its’ inevitable that Mitt Romney will be the Republican nominee for President in 2012.

In considering the question, there are two factors that voters and political pundits need to consider. First, there’s the complex nature of political endorsements and the wide ranging month by month flirtation that has occurred within the Republican primary field.

Endorsements may help candidates garner votes, but they are not votes themselves. My personal calculus when voting has nothing to do with who each candidate has been endorsed by. Rather, I look at my situation and which candidate I believe will be most beneficial to my interests. If people are voting for candidate x because they were endorsed by figure y, than there is something wrong with this country.

Getting to my second point, if Mitt Romney is going to be the presidential candidate for the Republican party, then why hve there been all these flirtations with anyone but Mitt Romney? Everyone except Jon Huntsman and Rick Santorum have had their moments in the sun during the candidate stages of this race.

 This says to me that Republican voters don’t have a candidate yet, and no spate of endorsements is going to make it so. There are clearly a large swath of Republicans that belong to the anybody but Romney crowd. So I think anyone crowning Mitt Romney the Republican nominee, needs to take a chill pill.