From Ames straw poll winner to seventh place finish in the Iowa Caucus. That was the candidacy of Michelle Bachmann.
There was no future in this contest for Bachmann without a victory in Iowa. If your home state doesn’t believe you’re the best person for the job, than you have no hope nationally. Even a post-scream Howard Dean was able to win the Vermont primary, where he had been a two term governor.
Michelle Bachmann brought a unique voice to the campaign trail that will be sorely missed. Bachmann is still a powerful voice for the Tea Party within the halls of Congress and is best suited to return to that role.
This will probably be her one and only shot at the presidency, unless something drastic occurs. I don’t believe her views are mainstream enough to win the job, ultimately.
Showing posts with label Iowa Caucus. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iowa Caucus. Show all posts
Friday, January 6, 2012
Thursday, January 5, 2012
Iowa and New Hampshire in New Politics
There has been considerable debate about the role of Iowa and New Hampshire with the changing face of politics. Not long ago, presidential candidates launched barnstorming campaigns across the entire states of Iowa and New Hampshire.
Now, because of the increased influence of super PAC’s and the sheer amount of money involved in presidential campaigns, there’s less of a need to mount the state-wide bus tour because you can just run a bunch of ads if your pockets are deep enough.
The greater number of debates is also giving voters more of an opportunity to size up the candidates before voting, I leave it to the readers to determine whether this is a good or bad thing.
There is a danger in this, because candidates who aren’t in Iowa and New Hampshire enough can be seen as aloof or detached, which is obviously never good for a campaign.
And the new debate heavy format has obviously caused candidates to falter (Rick Perry.)
Iowa and New Hampshire still matter. Without Iowa, Rick Santorum is a footnote candidate in otherwise fairly obvious race. Santorum ran a very traditional campaign leading into Tuesday night’s caucuses and almost won.
This indicates that the “old way” of doing things in Iowa can still pay major dividends, even if Santorum is now the exception, not the rule.
Now, because of the increased influence of super PAC’s and the sheer amount of money involved in presidential campaigns, there’s less of a need to mount the state-wide bus tour because you can just run a bunch of ads if your pockets are deep enough.
The greater number of debates is also giving voters more of an opportunity to size up the candidates before voting, I leave it to the readers to determine whether this is a good or bad thing.
There is a danger in this, because candidates who aren’t in Iowa and New Hampshire enough can be seen as aloof or detached, which is obviously never good for a campaign.
And the new debate heavy format has obviously caused candidates to falter (Rick Perry.)
Iowa and New Hampshire still matter. Without Iowa, Rick Santorum is a footnote candidate in otherwise fairly obvious race. Santorum ran a very traditional campaign leading into Tuesday night’s caucuses and almost won.
This indicates that the “old way” of doing things in Iowa can still pay major dividends, even if Santorum is now the exception, not the rule.
Santorum’s Iowa: Does It Matter?
Rick Santorum came within eight votes of pulling off the greatest political upset of my lifetime on Tuesday night. What does Santorum’s last moment surge in Iowa ultimately mean going forward?
Ultimately, not much. Romney holds a commanding lead in New Hampshire and Santorum doesn’t have the nationwide organization to compete in other states. Santorum's message worked well among the large evangelical population in Iowa. Santorum will ultimately struggle in states where the evangelical vote isn’t as strong.
I think Santorum’s record will ultimately be a concern. In trying to appear moderate as a Senator seeking re-election in Pennsylvania, he created inconsistencies that will be hard to explain away to a conservative primary audience.
Santorum had a great night, but will ultimately have little impact on the race at large.
Ultimately, not much. Romney holds a commanding lead in New Hampshire and Santorum doesn’t have the nationwide organization to compete in other states. Santorum's message worked well among the large evangelical population in Iowa. Santorum will ultimately struggle in states where the evangelical vote isn’t as strong.
I think Santorum’s record will ultimately be a concern. In trying to appear moderate as a Senator seeking re-election in Pennsylvania, he created inconsistencies that will be hard to explain away to a conservative primary audience.
Santorum had a great night, but will ultimately have little impact on the race at large.
Monday, January 2, 2012
Would Ron Paul Make Iowa Irrelevant?
Would the selection of Ron Paul or another of the so called “second tier” candidate in Tuesday’s Iowa Caucus render Iowa irrelevant? The moment we attack anyone else’s opinion is the exact moment that our opinion becomes worthless.
Just because they pick a candidate that isn’t favored by polls or perhaps even the national party does not make the choice itself any less legitimate.
Fifty states will have the opportunity to cast a vote in a primary or caucus. Every state should be allowed to make that choice without feeling pressured into making the “right choice” based on whatever the media or pollsters are saying.
Often finances and delegate mathematics make this an impossibility. Voters in Iowa always have this chance however, and should not worry about whether or not their choice meets with the approval of pundits or party elitists.
Just because they pick a candidate that isn’t favored by polls or perhaps even the national party does not make the choice itself any less legitimate.
Fifty states will have the opportunity to cast a vote in a primary or caucus. Every state should be allowed to make that choice without feeling pressured into making the “right choice” based on whatever the media or pollsters are saying.
Often finances and delegate mathematics make this an impossibility. Voters in Iowa always have this chance however, and should not worry about whether or not their choice meets with the approval of pundits or party elitists.
Thursday, December 22, 2011
Why Not Ron Paul?
Four words that I never thought I’d utter. Ron Paul has been treated more as a third candidate sideshow behind Mitt Romney and whomever is occupying the favorite candidate of the month position. However, it is exactly because of the unsettled, chaotic nature of the race that Ron Paul may pull off an Iowa surprise.
He has strong organizational system and a youthful and excited base of supporters who carry their signs and just might be willing to turn out and vote on caucus day. And in a race where every vote matters: turnout is the kingmaker.
Iowa hasn’t exactly shied away from the unconventional candidate choices before. While Ron Paul may not be a winning candidate ultimately, I believe he has the goods to compete in Iowa, particularly among the young and disaffected voter who see him as a man of different ideas than the status quo.
In a race where it pays not to be Mitt Romney someone is going to have delegates at the convention that allow them to speak loudly. Maybe Ron Paul gets an eleventh hour surge and defeats Mitt Romney in Iowa and can then ride a domino wave in New Hampshire. Similar things have happened before, everyone remember John Kerry in 2004, he won Iowa and then swept most everything else to win the Democratic nomination.
In electoral politics a big guy named Mo plays kingmaker.
He has strong organizational system and a youthful and excited base of supporters who carry their signs and just might be willing to turn out and vote on caucus day. And in a race where every vote matters: turnout is the kingmaker.
Iowa hasn’t exactly shied away from the unconventional candidate choices before. While Ron Paul may not be a winning candidate ultimately, I believe he has the goods to compete in Iowa, particularly among the young and disaffected voter who see him as a man of different ideas than the status quo.
In a race where it pays not to be Mitt Romney someone is going to have delegates at the convention that allow them to speak loudly. Maybe Ron Paul gets an eleventh hour surge and defeats Mitt Romney in Iowa and can then ride a domino wave in New Hampshire. Similar things have happened before, everyone remember John Kerry in 2004, he won Iowa and then swept most everything else to win the Democratic nomination.
In electoral politics a big guy named Mo plays kingmaker.
Newt Gingrich: Flavor of Moment?
As much as I don’t jive with many of Newt Gingrich’s views, he is a crafty politician and a skilled debater. You don’t have a decades long political career that culminated in his role as Speaker of the House during the 1990’s without it.
However, he feels like a Baskin Robbins flavor of the month candidate that will ultimately make Barack Obama, a two term president should he happen to win the nomination. Gingrich runs counter to everything the average American claims to be demanding in a candidate.
A popular tagline among the Presidential candidates is that Washington is broken. So to glue Washington back together, the Republicans are going to turn to a politician with a thirty year plus Washington career…who was at least partially responsible for the 1995 government shutdown?
Gingrich has a record that is too easily open to attack. Barack Obama no doubt has brilliant campaign people that will dissect this record like a vegetable platter.
1994 wasn’t all that long ago…If Gingrich wins, 2012 is going to look a lot like 1994.
However, he feels like a Baskin Robbins flavor of the month candidate that will ultimately make Barack Obama, a two term president should he happen to win the nomination. Gingrich runs counter to everything the average American claims to be demanding in a candidate.
A popular tagline among the Presidential candidates is that Washington is broken. So to glue Washington back together, the Republicans are going to turn to a politician with a thirty year plus Washington career…who was at least partially responsible for the 1995 government shutdown?
Gingrich has a record that is too easily open to attack. Barack Obama no doubt has brilliant campaign people that will dissect this record like a vegetable platter.
1994 wasn’t all that long ago…If Gingrich wins, 2012 is going to look a lot like 1994.
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Iowa: Still Anyone’s Race?
I know many of the recent polls have the Iowa caucuses reduced to a three candidate race between Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, with Ron Paul in third. But anyone who takes these polls too literally may be in for a sting when the results roll in. The polls are a creation dependent upon the fragile nature of human beings. Put simply: PEOPLE LIE. It’s a stunning fact of humanity that PEOPLE LIE.
I was a campaign worker for two political campaigns in the 2004-05 range and when I called people to ask who they were planning on voting for…I usually got the “undecided” answer. When the election returns came in, the candidate I backed lost by double digits.
Polls are great theatre and they give media types and political junkies topics for conversation, but we should beware of making too much of any one poll. I could probably find a way to produce a poll that says Jon Huntsman will win in Iowa (despite not campaigning there), if one manipulates the numbers enough. That’s why I believe that Iowa is still anyone’s ballgame because polls have been known to decieve us before.
I was a campaign worker for two political campaigns in the 2004-05 range and when I called people to ask who they were planning on voting for…I usually got the “undecided” answer. When the election returns came in, the candidate I backed lost by double digits.
Polls are great theatre and they give media types and political junkies topics for conversation, but we should beware of making too much of any one poll. I could probably find a way to produce a poll that says Jon Huntsman will win in Iowa (despite not campaigning there), if one manipulates the numbers enough. That’s why I believe that Iowa is still anyone’s ballgame because polls have been known to decieve us before.
Sunday, October 30, 2011
Romney and Cain in Iowa?
A just released poll indicates that Herman Cain and Mitt Romney are in a dead heat among Republicans likely to vote in the January nominating caucus. So, does this automatically mean that its’ a Romney-Cain showdown in Iowa?
Given the less than sterling response from the Republican base about any candidate, I wouldn’t count any Republican candidate out, though Rick Santorum and my personal Republican favorite John Huntsman are far back in the polls. Polls can lie because they rely on the assumption that people are truthful, which isn’t always the case.
Further, Iowa in the last three decades hasn’t exactly had the pulse of America in the caucuses, as I pointed out in Caucus in the Corn available here: http://wwwbookdiplomacy.blogspot.com/2011/07/caucus-in-corn.html. A victory by any candidate should not be considered a death blow unless you’ve based your entire campaign upon the state…see Rick Santorum.
Many men have won in Iowa on their way to not becoming the nominee. Furthermore, the caucus is in two months. We’ve seen campaigns fall apart over one scream and a bizarre geography bee by Howard Dean. Campaigns can rise and fall in the next two months. Right now, its’ too close to call.
Given the less than sterling response from the Republican base about any candidate, I wouldn’t count any Republican candidate out, though Rick Santorum and my personal Republican favorite John Huntsman are far back in the polls. Polls can lie because they rely on the assumption that people are truthful, which isn’t always the case.
Further, Iowa in the last three decades hasn’t exactly had the pulse of America in the caucuses, as I pointed out in Caucus in the Corn available here: http://wwwbookdiplomacy.blogspot.com/2011/07/caucus-in-corn.html. A victory by any candidate should not be considered a death blow unless you’ve based your entire campaign upon the state…see Rick Santorum.
Many men have won in Iowa on their way to not becoming the nominee. Furthermore, the caucus is in two months. We’ve seen campaigns fall apart over one scream and a bizarre geography bee by Howard Dean. Campaigns can rise and fall in the next two months. Right now, its’ too close to call.
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