I’ve been off-blog for a few days, but still wanted to comment on some of the goings on down in Florida.
Newt Gingrich was endorsed by Herman Cain down in Florida and Sarah Palin compared him favorably to Mitt Romney. It looks like major forces in the Tea Party are trying to rally around Newt Gingrich, and I’m not exactly sure why Gingrich holds such an appeal to some Tea Party favorites.
Forgive me for perhaps understating the Tea Party platform, but I thought the premise behind the Tea Party was that Washington D.C. was broken and needed fixing?
Apparently, some key figures within the Tea Party believe that the best way to fix Washington is to make a twenty year Washington insider…the President?
How does that advance the interests of the Tea Party? I mean, sure Gingrich has inventive ideas, but how does he propose to get them through Congress?
Showing posts with label Herman Cain. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Herman Cain. Show all posts
Sunday, February 5, 2012
Thursday, December 22, 2011
The Politics of Sex Scandals
Herman Cain’s presidential ambitions ended amid a torrent of sexual allegations and policy gaffs on Libya. A quick survey of political figures illustrates that not every politician will be ended by an sexual scandal, some of even thrive after their moral escapades hit the front page: see David Vitter of Louisiana.
This led me to consider why some political figures can survive a moral scandal, while others are road kill to be remembered by tabloids and sitcom writers.
Another strategy used out by many political figures is to change the subject. A candidate may survive scandal if he can push the agenda away from the moral issue onto another issue. David Vitter used this out in Louisiana using great personal popularity and coming clean to shift the focus off of him onto something that the voters of Louisiana cared more about.
Honesty is the third variable. Politicians who “come clean” are generally afforded more utility than dancers like Herman Cain, who often come off as insincere in the face of new events.
Herman Cain failed in all of these arenas and that is why he is most likely a former presidential candidate.
This led me to consider why some political figures can survive a moral scandal, while others are road kill to be remembered by tabloids and sitcom writers.
Another strategy used out by many political figures is to change the subject. A candidate may survive scandal if he can push the agenda away from the moral issue onto another issue. David Vitter used this out in Louisiana using great personal popularity and coming clean to shift the focus off of him onto something that the voters of Louisiana cared more about.
Honesty is the third variable. Politicians who “come clean” are generally afforded more utility than dancers like Herman Cain, who often come off as insincere in the face of new events.
Herman Cain failed in all of these arenas and that is why he is most likely a former presidential candidate.
Sunday, October 30, 2011
Romney and Cain in Iowa?
A just released poll indicates that Herman Cain and Mitt Romney are in a dead heat among Republicans likely to vote in the January nominating caucus. So, does this automatically mean that its’ a Romney-Cain showdown in Iowa?
Given the less than sterling response from the Republican base about any candidate, I wouldn’t count any Republican candidate out, though Rick Santorum and my personal Republican favorite John Huntsman are far back in the polls. Polls can lie because they rely on the assumption that people are truthful, which isn’t always the case.
Further, Iowa in the last three decades hasn’t exactly had the pulse of America in the caucuses, as I pointed out in Caucus in the Corn available here: http://wwwbookdiplomacy.blogspot.com/2011/07/caucus-in-corn.html. A victory by any candidate should not be considered a death blow unless you’ve based your entire campaign upon the state…see Rick Santorum.
Many men have won in Iowa on their way to not becoming the nominee. Furthermore, the caucus is in two months. We’ve seen campaigns fall apart over one scream and a bizarre geography bee by Howard Dean. Campaigns can rise and fall in the next two months. Right now, its’ too close to call.
Given the less than sterling response from the Republican base about any candidate, I wouldn’t count any Republican candidate out, though Rick Santorum and my personal Republican favorite John Huntsman are far back in the polls. Polls can lie because they rely on the assumption that people are truthful, which isn’t always the case.
Further, Iowa in the last three decades hasn’t exactly had the pulse of America in the caucuses, as I pointed out in Caucus in the Corn available here: http://wwwbookdiplomacy.blogspot.com/2011/07/caucus-in-corn.html. A victory by any candidate should not be considered a death blow unless you’ve based your entire campaign upon the state…see Rick Santorum.
Many men have won in Iowa on their way to not becoming the nominee. Furthermore, the caucus is in two months. We’ve seen campaigns fall apart over one scream and a bizarre geography bee by Howard Dean. Campaigns can rise and fall in the next two months. Right now, its’ too close to call.
Friday, October 28, 2011
Herman Cain, Republican Nominee?
That’s the question Christian Science Monitor had earlier this week: Can Herman Cain win the Republican Presidential Nomination?
Well technically, one could create a scenario where Rick Santorum wins the nomination, but assuming one is moving beyond the notion of “can” and into a probabilistic formulation, as much as I disagree with Herman Cain’s positions, I think he has a chance to win the nomination.
To win the nomination, he has to make it through the Republican primary process. Primary voters are typically more politically aware and ideologically driven than the electorate at large. At the moment, the Republican electorate appears to be quite fired up at the prospect of Herman Cain and the simplicity of his 9-9-9 tax plan.
There is definitely something to be said for simplifying things in a contest where there are a bunch of men who seem to enjoy tossing around fifty dollar words and accusations about people’s gardeners.
My challenge for Herman Cain is that sound bites on the campaign trail like 9-9-9 are great for getting votes to win the election, but what happens when the reality of Congress smacks him in the face?
Tax reform is required campaign speak, but has often fallen flat in Congress, what makes Cain so different? Barack Obama spoke of hope and change four years ago and we’ve seen what happens when the electoral message meets political reality.
Well technically, one could create a scenario where Rick Santorum wins the nomination, but assuming one is moving beyond the notion of “can” and into a probabilistic formulation, as much as I disagree with Herman Cain’s positions, I think he has a chance to win the nomination.
To win the nomination, he has to make it through the Republican primary process. Primary voters are typically more politically aware and ideologically driven than the electorate at large. At the moment, the Republican electorate appears to be quite fired up at the prospect of Herman Cain and the simplicity of his 9-9-9 tax plan.
There is definitely something to be said for simplifying things in a contest where there are a bunch of men who seem to enjoy tossing around fifty dollar words and accusations about people’s gardeners.
My challenge for Herman Cain is that sound bites on the campaign trail like 9-9-9 are great for getting votes to win the election, but what happens when the reality of Congress smacks him in the face?
Tax reform is required campaign speak, but has often fallen flat in Congress, what makes Cain so different? Barack Obama spoke of hope and change four years ago and we’ve seen what happens when the electoral message meets political reality.
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