For Life, Liberty, and Failed States

Foreign Policy Magazine in conjunction with the Fund for Peace has released the 2012 Failed States Index.

 This information is typically useful for scholars of terrorism because failed states can be fertile recruiting grounds for terrorist organizations like Al Qaeda.

Others use the index as a rallying cry to pressure their governments to do something about the abject human misery that is spawned by malfunctioning and broken states.

This years list is headlined by

·         Somalia

·         The Democratic Republic of Congo

·         North Sudan

·         South Sudan (NOT RATED)

·         Chad

·         Zimbabwe

My larger point in writing this blog is to question whether we should even be ranking failed states at all.

 The notion of ranking failed states does seem quite subjective and heavy handed. It makes it sound like the problems in Zimbabwe are somehow worse than that of Afghanistan and Haiti, who finished sixth and seventh respectively.

I venture to say that the average Afghan or Haitian would find common cause with Zimbabwean.

Further, state failure in my view, cannot be measured through some magical set of calculations and reduced to a numerical value.

There are people on the end of these numbers who are suffering from everything from autocratic governance to little affordable food and water.

 Many suffer from several ailments. I think this index would be more helpful, if it came with explanatory country by country data that explained the numbers.

Africans can use Technology !

Africa is a place of many problems. Africans have been described by more than one person working in a governing capacity as lazy, stupid, and barbaric.

 I’ve begun to question whether the so called civilized world’s big problem is Africa is our own moronic prejudices, rather than glaring inferiority of the African people.

 Watching the World News the other night, I heard about the plane crash in Nigeria and the news people were sent photos of the crash from someone using an IPHONE. I rejoiced because it showed me that Africans are indeed capable of using modern technology.

This is quite a leap seeing as less than a decade ago, Jeffrey Sachs put an anecdote in his book about an person on a development mission insinuating that Africans didn’t know how to tell time.

 Maybe, we’re the ones who need to have our priorities examined.

Instead of talking to the African states like they are our misbegotten stepchildren, we should actually talk to them instead of talking down to them ?

 I’m not saying it will make Africa Disneyland, but if we’re not even on equal footing, how can we make anything better?

The Iron Law of Oligarchy

The Iron Law of Oligarchy was proposed by German sociologist Robert Michaels and the essential argument is that oligarchies (and really all hierarchical organizations) will reproduce themselves not only when the same group is in power, but even when an entirely new group takes control.

The democracy crisis outlined in my previous post may provide a perfect test for the Iron Law of Oligarchy.

Africa is notorious for having backward political and economic institutions that benefit the elite and their highly connected friends. All of the leaders outlined in my previous posts threw off oligarch rulers with promises of reforms, but once they took control of the country, they engaged in many of the same behaviors of their predecessors.

Much of the blame for this behavior, I feel lies with the weak political and economic institutions. Fixing broken institutions requires an “iron will.” There’s virtually no political will to engage in the building stronger institutions because that would mean sharing the wealth and inciting a rebellion from elites who benefited from the old system.

Even I must lament sadly: “Why risk a potentially deadly coup attempt when you can just sit back and grow fantastically wealthy”? At least until your deposed by your military or the people in a popular uprising.

 I’m not sure whether Mugabe in Zimbabwe, Wade in Senegal, or Kabila in the Congo were ever interested in instituting reforms. I’ll leave that to more seasoned Africa experts.

But the hope of reform these men once embodied is often swallowed by the materialist greed of the law of oligarchy particularly in Africa.

2012: The African Autocratic Revival

Several African nations appear set to reverse their democratic gains in 2012, which has prompted the Christian Science Monitor to question whether 2012 will mark the return of the African Despot.

I have previously commented on the situation in Senegal here: http://wwwbookdiplomacy.blogspot.com/2012/02/senegal-not-another-africa.html.

A constitutional court ruled that President Abdoulaye Wade could run for a third term, in spite of a two term limit that Wade himself signed into law after his election in 2001. Wade had argued that he could run again because he had been elected under the old constitution, a claim the five judges all appointed by Wade, agreed with.

In the Congo, Joseph Kabila was declared the winner of last November’s elections, despite widespread irregularities and poor organization led international observers to declare results inconclusive and one opposition candidate declared himself present before votes were cast.

 Not helping matters, the main negotiator between Kabila and the opposition parties was killed in a plane crash on Feb. 12^th, complicating the task of government formation.

Zimbabwe still has Mugabe. Mugabe is vowing to run in the 2013. He’s served as prime minister and president for the last thirty two years. Opposition forces are trying to draft a constitution to block such long tenures, but Mugabe has vowed to never sign such measures.

 Even more disheartening, he’s banned twenty nine aid groups, that provide valuable aid to Zimbabweans at risk of starvation.

In Malawi, President Bingu’s creeping autocracy and economic mismanagement has caused international donors, most notably the IMF to suspend loans and financial aid to the country.

 Bingu has also imprisoned human rights workers and journalists for questioning his governing/lifestyle and he expelled the British ambassador for calling the President “becoming more autocratic and intolerant of criticism.

SOURCE: http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Africa/2012/0217/Will-2012-be-the-Year-of-the-African-Despot-again

Though Mugabe is no surprise, this is disheartening for democratic development in Africa.

Western analysts saw great hope in the regimes Senegal and Congo, who themselves defeated autocrats to ascend to power, amid promises of reform.

Apparently, the iron law of oligarchy is stronger then we thought.

Senegal: Not Another Africa

Africa is dogged by fragile democratic institutions. The latest example of democratic fragility comes from relatively peaceful Senegal.

 Protests have broken out ahead of the February 26^th presidential election after a constitutional court ruled that President Abdoulaye Wade could run for a third term, in spite of a two term limit that Wade himself signed into law after his election in 2001.

Wade had argued that he could run again because he had been elected under the old constitution, a claim the five judges all appointed by Wade, agreed with.

 Last June, Wade attempted to reduce the number of first round votes needed to win from fifty to twenty five percent. Source: http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Africa/2012/0206/Senegalese-opposition-denounce-president-s-bid-for-third-term

These sound like the actions of a would-be autocrat. Attempting to violate constitutionally prescribed term limits while getting a favorable ruling from judges that Mr. Wade appointed. We cannot have African democracy while we have leaders willing to use constitutions as toilet paper.

Sadly, the type of behavior exhibited by Wade is an all too common story around Africa that the African people cannot and should not tolerate. The people of Senegal can choose to stand for democracy or they can choose to stand for masked tyranny.

A Brief Note On Africa

Over the coming days and weeks, I’ll be incorporating more material on Africa into the blog.

Anyone with a functioning pair of eyes can see that Africa is a rather challenged continent besieged by war, poverty, disease, and economic woe. Hopefully, I will be able to use Book Diplomacy in order to shine a spotlight on some of these issues.

I firmly believe that the African people are not hopeless, war does not have to be their destiny. Western governments have done African people a disservice by treating much of the continent as a charity case in need of salvation.

 As long as the attitude of Western governments doesn‘t change , don’t expect Africa to change either.

U.S. Intervention in Somalia?

On the same day as President Obama’s State of the Union address, a team of Navy Seals rescued two hostages from a criminal gang in Somalia. Does this mean that the United States will intervene further in the troubled African nation?

Don’t count on it.

The American public is feeling worn down by our interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan. There is virtually no appetite to launch a large scale invasion in Africa. Furthermore, the American military establishment still has bad memories of the disastrous 1993 intervention there that left 27 dead.

Even if the United States was in a better morale and could afford the financial burden of a third war, regional security has largely been delegated to other forces from the African Union, Kenya, and Ethiopia. Our military has decided to leave the fight against Al Shabab in the hands of East African forces.

Operations like those conducted by the Navy Seals allow the President to take a tough stand against kidnapping and piracy without a large military investiture. This militarized approach to piracy is no cure all though, military patrols have often dispersed the problem over a wider area making anti-piracy efforts more difficult.

I’m President of the Congo

No, I’m not declaring myself President of the Congo. But Etienne Tshisekedi certainly has. In a radio interview, he denied that the Congolese government had denied his plane permission to land, declared that the current President Kabila has no one supporting him, other than his wife, and that most of the people have sided with him.

Adding further fire to a particularly nasty election campaign, he called on supporters to stage jail breaks and free his supporters that were jailed during demonstrators. It is unknown whether his supporters will head the call. Tshisekedi has been criticized for spending most of his time outside the country in South Africa during campaign season.

Source: http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Africa/Africa-Monitor/2011/1108/Congolese-candidate-Tshisekedi-declares-himself-president

Just another African election, much? This would worry me. We have a candidate who is largely funded through South Africa, meaning that he probably will govern South Africa’s interests, if elected. Furthermore, if he’s encouraging illegal activity and riotous actions, how can we expect him to act any better as president?

Maybe Congo should just prepare itself to descend into violence now. The Congo itself is no stranger to violence and tension. Indeed, most days, it feels like most African nations could say that.

Zimbabwe: Government in Chaos Again

The African people deserve much better government than this crap.

Robert Mugabe's’ ZANU-PF Party is in danger of clashing with its’ own coalition partners over a new round of repressions. Businessman and opposition activists have been harassed, journalists beaten, and a pro Movement for Democratic Change rally was forcibly broken by Mugabe supports as the police watched.

This comes approximately two years after the MDC and ZANU-PF Party signed a Global Policy Agreement. The coalition hasn’t been the smoothest coalition ever, needing constant negotiation and intervention from the South African Development Community. However, the economy has stabilized under their leadership.

Source: http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Africa/2011/1108/Is-Zimbabwe-s-power-sharing-deal-coming-undone

I don’t buy and will never buy…the argument that Africans are incapable of governing themselves or experiencing prosperity. Africans are a remarkably resilient people. You’d have to be to still have hope after decades of this crap.

 Africa’s autocrats best beware: you guys are not so exceptional that you can’t be overthrown in a Arab Spring with African characteristics. Your people have already been given the tools they need. The very fact that they’ve taken to the streets should be warning that autocratic government isn’t as secure as it once was.

The African Fight against Al Shabab

Kenya and Somalia have made an appeal for international assistance against Islamist group Al Shabab. The two governments are seeking international help in executing a naval blockade of Kismayo-whom the group controls and gets half its’ income according to international estimates.

 The three weeks of Kenyan incursions into Somalia have been interesting to say the least. A Kenyan air strike went awry and killed five in a refugee camp. Meanwhile, the FBI is investigating whether a suicide bomber who killed 10 is a U.S. citizen from Minnesota, who called on Muslims to do jihad throughout the world.

Although I’m typically reluctant to commit forces to new combat roles, I don’t know how we avoid providing some assistance if we are serious about fighting terrorism. The large Somali community in Minnesota has already had several members leave to join Al Shabab, calling for jihad where-ever they live.

This changes the conflict from “African” into a matter of global national security. Is NATO in any condition to supply the firepower given Europe’s financial difficulties and the American publics disinterest in another conflict? That is the ultimate question.

Underwear Bomber

Perhaps illustrative of my above point about Africa being a potential terrorist recruiting ground of the present and future. The “Underwear Bomber” pleaded guilty in a federal courtroom last week for attempting to blow up a jetliner over Detroit, Christmas Day 2010.

Though, I’m certainly not going to shed a tear for the underwear bomber, I think this case speaks to larger problems that we as a country have yet to meaningfully address.

 Despite our best security, he still found a way onto a commercial airliner and could’ve brought down a plane with 250 passengers onboard. This is indicative that even with the world’s greatest security measures, the terrorists can always find a hole.

My larger point, is the terrorist breeding ground that is Africa. Africa is plagued with bad governance, lack of jobs, lack of education, and just a general lack of opportunity. Terrorist groups prey upon the margins of traditional society, exploiting the isolated and giving them something to believe in.

 The “Underwear Bomber” may have failed in his ultimate goal, thankfully, but that doesn’t mean that there are not other disaffected souls around the world, under the sway of terrorist ideology seething at the thought of finishing the Underwear Bombers work and creating their own legacy.

Should the United States move against The LRA?

100 US Special Operations Forces began deploying to Africa in order to assist local military leaders in their quest to capture the brutal Joseph Kony head of the Lords Resistance Army who has killed thousands of civilians, raped women, and abducted children for use as child soldiers.

The soldiers will fan out throughout Uganda, Central African Republic, Congo, and the newly minted South Sudan. Their role is to act in an advisory and intelligence capacity unless forced to defend themselves. This is another example of Barack Obama’s military strategy: smaller numbers of more specialized forces and greater use of targeted drone strikes. The question: Is it the right strategy?

Source: http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Military/2011/1015/What-US-manhunt-for-LRA-leaders-reveals-about-Obama-s-war-strategy

President Obama has defined this mission in terms of America’s national security interest. While that claim is disputed by some, the Pentagon has added “preventing of human suffering due to mass atrocities” to its’ list of priorities outlined in the 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review. The L.R.A. most certainly fits that definition, meaning that such action is indeed warranted. Furthermore, the President was given a 2010 Congressional mandate to deal with the L.R.A.

Obviously, a big military buildup is out of the question given other commitments, but something small and directional is warranted given our human rights stances and the fact that Africa is considered by many experts to be the next terrorist hotspot.

I’m further struck by a lack of alternatives: we shouldn’t sanction an already economically fragile region for 300-400 L.R.A operatives. Doesn’t it make us appear heartless and cruel to let more people die?

Lessons of the Ivory Coast

The swearing in of Alassane Ouattara  as president of the Ivory Coast presents an interesting situation for the United Nations and African Union troops who haven’t exactly had sterling records in dealing with African problems in the past. Ouattara won an election over strongman Gbagbo who refused to accept the resaults.

In the resaulting conflict, Ouattara’s forces routed Gbagbo’s forces in a conflict that was largely dealt with domestically as the African Union and United Nations failed to act in due haste. Still the UN and the French were needed to take back the capital of Abidjan from Gbagbo loyalists.

The resault here is notable because the African Union and the international community backed Ouattara’s claim to the office, something that is far from certain in deliberations over anything African. If such support contines, also a questionable proposition, then there may be hope yet, for a democratic Africa full of hope, not misery.

An unfortunate reality here is that Ouattara is correct in asserting “Domestic problems should be taken care of by domestic forces.” For the future of the African continent, lets’ hope Africans remember this. The international community has let down Africa more times than I care to count. International forces should not relied upon for quick action.

Source: http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Africa/Africa-Monitor/2011/0921/Is-Ivory-Coast-really-a-great-model-for-international-intervention.