The Iron Law of Oligarchy

The Iron Law of Oligarchy was proposed by German sociologist Robert Michaels and the essential argument is that oligarchies (and really all hierarchical organizations) will reproduce themselves not only when the same group is in power, but even when an entirely new group takes control.

The democracy crisis outlined in my previous post may provide a perfect test for the Iron Law of Oligarchy.

Africa is notorious for having backward political and economic institutions that benefit the elite and their highly connected friends. All of the leaders outlined in my previous posts threw off oligarch rulers with promises of reforms, but once they took control of the country, they engaged in many of the same behaviors of their predecessors.

Much of the blame for this behavior, I feel lies with the weak political and economic institutions. Fixing broken institutions requires an “iron will.” There’s virtually no political will to engage in the building stronger institutions because that would mean sharing the wealth and inciting a rebellion from elites who benefited from the old system.

Even I must lament sadly: “Why risk a potentially deadly coup attempt when you can just sit back and grow fantastically wealthy”? At least until your deposed by your military or the people in a popular uprising.

 I’m not sure whether Mugabe in Zimbabwe, Wade in Senegal, or Kabila in the Congo were ever interested in instituting reforms. I’ll leave that to more seasoned Africa experts.

But the hope of reform these men once embodied is often swallowed by the materialist greed of the law of oligarchy particularly in Africa.

Senegal: Not Another Africa

Africa is dogged by fragile democratic institutions. The latest example of democratic fragility comes from relatively peaceful Senegal.

 Protests have broken out ahead of the February 26^th presidential election after a constitutional court ruled that President Abdoulaye Wade could run for a third term, in spite of a two term limit that Wade himself signed into law after his election in 2001.

Wade had argued that he could run again because he had been elected under the old constitution, a claim the five judges all appointed by Wade, agreed with.

 Last June, Wade attempted to reduce the number of first round votes needed to win from fifty to twenty five percent. Source: http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Africa/2012/0206/Senegalese-opposition-denounce-president-s-bid-for-third-term

These sound like the actions of a would-be autocrat. Attempting to violate constitutionally prescribed term limits while getting a favorable ruling from judges that Mr. Wade appointed. We cannot have African democracy while we have leaders willing to use constitutions as toilet paper.

Sadly, the type of behavior exhibited by Wade is an all too common story around Africa that the African people cannot and should not tolerate. The people of Senegal can choose to stand for democracy or they can choose to stand for masked tyranny.