Al Qaeda Plane Theory

Despite recent losses in key leadership positions, Al Qaeda is still said to be consumed with the notion of using an airplane to attack the United States.

 Looking at things from the Al Qaeda perspective, they achieved their greatest operational success on September 11^th 2001, more than 3,000 people were killed and the United States sense of invulnerability was shattered forever.

This one action compelled the United States into wars in Afghanistan and Iraq that appeared to turn Al Qaeda’s rhetoric about America being a crusader bent on conquering the Islamic world into prophecy. Why wouldn’t you want to repeat that success?

Al Qaeda has had some near misses with the underwear bomber and the printer bomb, showing us that they will continue to invent new ways to attack the United States.

 We are not going to have every answer for everything that terrorists can possibly throw at us. We’ve been blessed with some incredible good fortune and the ineptitude of terrorists.

 I think as Americans, we need to remember just how close Al Qaeda has come to attacking us before we dismiss their ambitions.

Kony 2012

While I was off the blog the mastermind behind the L.R.A. Joseph Kony received international attention thanks to a documentary entitled Kony 2012 that received millions of hits on YouTube and scores of media attention.

 A key criticism of the Kony video is that the very complex issue of L.R.A. involvement in Uganda has been reduced to focus on one man. I’m of two minds concerning this criticism, 1. Capturing Joseph Kony does not end all violence throughout Uganda and elsewhere. 2. If you’re a filmmaker seeking to enlist the public’s help in a cause,  you need to simplify it.

 It’s much easier for the public to implore their representative to GO GET JOSEPH KONY! Than DO SOMETHING ABOUT CHILD SOLDIERS IN UGANDA!

It’ll be interesting to see whether the viral video trend catches on as a tool to go after other international terrorist masterminds. Furthermore, what is the impact of Kony 2012 in six months or a year? If it only serves to focus temporary attention on Kony, and then everyone goes back to musing about Al Qaeda in Yemen or John Edwards, than what has been accomplished?

 The public attention span is fickle and could easily be preoccupied with the viral video of the moment. Therefore, while Kony 2012 is a unique effort to spread the word about an important cause, I question its’ use as a counter-terrorist tactic.

United States-Nigeria partnership over Boko Haram

The United States has moved closer to the Nigerian government, seeing common ground in the Nigerian governments struggle against Boko Haram.

 Boko Haram is an Islamic terrorist organization that is seeking to replace Nigeria’s secular democracy with Islamic sharia government. Indeed Boko Haram means “Western Education is a sin.” The group has been disgustingly effective—staging more than two hundred attacks since the start of the year.

Although, the U.S. military has stepped up efforts to train African militaries in intelligence, counter-insurgency and joint exercises, these efforts do little to solve the institutional weakness of many African governments that often exacerbate terrorism in Africa.

 Source: http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Africa/2012/0221/Islamist-attacks-draw-Nigeria-and-US-military-closer

I think there is a real danger in militarizing all problems of terrorism. Nigeria does not have the institutonal capabilities to fight a conventional counter-terrorist operations. Western governments have the luxary of stable governments with secure borders

 So, Nigeria needs an institutional approach that endeavors to strengthen Nigeria’s institutions and wider African borders that will allow more traditional counter-terrorist operations to have effect. One cannot meaningfully fight terror if militants can just slip back across the border to attack again.

Jihad: A Matter of Love and Hate

Really enjoyed Terrorists in Love: Real Lives of Islamic Radicals by Ken Ballen because it presented a look at jihadists that few have attempted before.

 It’s easy to view every terrorist as a monster, but Ballen went deeper and delved into the lives of five Islamic radicals and discovered that rather than burning hatred motivating jihadists, there was an overarching, all consuming love that motivated them to commit their acts of hatred. This love either took the romanticized form of Islam practiced by Al Qaeda and related groups or the actual loss of a love that radicalized them.

I’ll admit the perspective Ballen takes had never occurred to me before reading this book. I belonged to the school of thought that treated terrorists as though what motivated one, motivated all. Ballen broke through this static view and showed the variation that can exist from one jihadists to another.

 Ballen accomplishes this feat without sounding over sympathetic or apologetic for the terrorist actions. I highly recommend this book for anyone who’s interested in understanding something about the motivations of terrorists and maybe just a little something about us in the process.

Amazon Link: http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1451609213

What Canos' Death Means

The killing of the supreme commandant of the FARC may actually hurt the peace process rather than helping it. Guillermo Leon Saenz, AKA Alfonso Cano was killed in a bombing raid on his encampment. Why is the death of a man several countries classify as a terrorist bad for a peace process, one might ask?

 While despite his continued advocation of force and guerilla tactics, Cano also sought dialogue and peace talks with Columbian presidents. It was reported he had largely convinced the FARC leadership of the peace process.

 With his death, the peace process has an uncertain future. His rumored successors may not have the same control over forces and a more ideological bend than Cano making peace difficult.

Although I’ve never been one to side with narco-terrorists, this killing may have made the job of the Columbian government harder, rather than easier. Now you face the prospect of FARC taking on a harder bend, or splintering into three or four guerilla movements instead of one.

Meaning that making peace with one, only solves 25% percent of your guerilla problem because they can only deliver their forces. My message for the Columbian government is the same one that I offer every government “You can’t kill your way to victory.”

Boko Haram: Economic Terrorists

Boko Haram is a Muslim Group carrying out terrorist operations in the Nigeria. In several of their statements they’ve declared that their goal is to replace Nigeria’s corrupt democracy with Islamic law. Still others see Boko Haram’s recent spate of attacks as an attempt by the group to secure some sort of government payout.

The Nigerian government took this step previously in dealing with rebels in Nigeria’s oil rich southern region, a few short years ago. It has been said that the government’s failure to address Boko Haram’s actual grievances has led to the recent serge in violence.

For some militants, terrorism is just a job. They are not motivated by grand religious proclamations, or goals of freeing an oppressed people, but rather feeding their family and having a dignified life. That being said, the government has set a dangerous president by paying off any groups because it only invites other terrorist groups and lone wolfs to carry out attacks, if they know there’s a sack of cash in the end.

 The use of force by both sides has also failed to address the underlying political and economic problems of Nigeria, that are undoubtedly sanctioning the violence.

The African Fight against Al Shabab

Kenya and Somalia have made an appeal for international assistance against Islamist group Al Shabab. The two governments are seeking international help in executing a naval blockade of Kismayo-whom the group controls and gets half its’ income according to international estimates.

 The three weeks of Kenyan incursions into Somalia have been interesting to say the least. A Kenyan air strike went awry and killed five in a refugee camp. Meanwhile, the FBI is investigating whether a suicide bomber who killed 10 is a U.S. citizen from Minnesota, who called on Muslims to do jihad throughout the world.

Although I’m typically reluctant to commit forces to new combat roles, I don’t know how we avoid providing some assistance if we are serious about fighting terrorism. The large Somali community in Minnesota has already had several members leave to join Al Shabab, calling for jihad where-ever they live.

This changes the conflict from “African” into a matter of global national security. Is NATO in any condition to supply the firepower given Europe’s financial difficulties and the American publics disinterest in another conflict? That is the ultimate question.

Pakistan: Get Tough With Terrorism

Secretary of State Hilary Clinton has once again pleaded with her Pakistani counterparts to get tough on militant havens within its’ borders. How many times have we watched this movie before?

U.S.-Pakistan relations have the tendency to remind me of a bad cable channel that airs the same movie twenty times in a month. The United States will ask Pakistani leaders to clean up terrorism in Pakistan, Pakistan’s leaders will enact largely cosmetic efforts to appease the Americans, and then return to the status quo out of fear of being displaced by the military establishment.

For a civilian leader in Pakistan, this is hell. While you may want to do the right thing and crack down on extremist elements within Pakistan, being too aggressive may lead to your imprisonment and/or death. Not doing anything, angers the United States, whose favor your desperate for.

 The real question is: What is going to stop this from becoming another U.S.-Pakistan dance where both sides offer rhetoric, but little action. Just once, I wish the United States would take meaningful action instead of issuing sternly worded statements for media consumption then backing off when Pakistan plays the strategic ally/nuclear card.