An Angle for Russian Intervention in Syria?

The Russian government has rejected the notion of international intervention because the conflict in Syria is a domestic matter to be handled internally.

 It is far from classified information that the two countries have been friendly since the heydays of the Soviet Union in the 1960’s and 1970’s but recent developments may make Russian intervention more likely.

First, Assad is having money issues and is looking towards his large friends in Moscow for help. The more damning scenario for Russian intervention is that Al Qaeda fighters in Syria are reported to have arrived in the country from Chechnya—where a Russian backed strongman has suppressed most attacks against the Kremlin.

Russia could use this as an entry point because the Chechen arm of Al Qaeda has been blamed for several attacks within Russia, and its’ entirely possible that the Putin government would want to take the fight to any Chechen member of Al Qaeda in an attempt to repair his own weakened domestic image.

 Of course, its also likely that Putin will say goodbye and good riddance to Chechen fighters because if they are in Syria, than they can cause Putin problems in Russia.

The Syrian Al Qaeda Dilemma: U.S. Style

Now that we covered the Al Qaeda dilemma from the Syrian rebels perspective, what does the United States say about it?

 I would have to believe that the United States is deeply concerned about the Al Qaeda presence in Syria, but what options are truly available?

Sure, you could increase weapons to the rebels, but who knows how many are going to be left by the time the resources are marshaled together? Meanwhile, there is no appetite for US troops on the ground in Syria---either in Congress or Main Street.

The best that the United States may be able to hope for is that this finally galvanizes the international community to act in some sort of concerted action.

Absent this awakening, I fear the United States may have to be bitterly content with the Al Qaeda presence in Syria because the current American political realities make it impossible to do anything meaningful.

No politician is going to send troops in an election year—and sending more weapons implies a time element that we don’t have.

The Syrian Al Qaeda Dilemma

Syrian rebels may soon be faced with an interesting choice. They are obviously outmanned and outgunned by forces loyal to Bashir Al-Assad and are struggling just to hold on in the city of Alepo.

Al Qaeda fighters from Chechnya and elsewhere have begun to infiltrate Syria and offer assistance to the rebels in the form of cash, weapons, and much needed bodies.

So far, rebel leaders have been reluctant to accept help, fearing that Al Qaeda will attempt to hijack the movement. The question is: Do you accept Al Qaeda’s’ help?

We’re dealing with a situation where rebel leaders may not be alive next week, if the shelling continues. Would you rather die with your principles intact or live perhaps being beholden to Al Qaeda?

 It’s a thorny issue, but I don’t think the Syrian rebels have the time to be playing morality chess. If Al Qaeda is offering them help, they should take it, along with anything the international community can provide. Hey! It’s far from the first time people have served two sides in war.

One has to be alive in order to have a post Assad Syria. Right now on that score, Syrian rebels need any help they can get.

Al Qaeda Plane Theory

Despite recent losses in key leadership positions, Al Qaeda is still said to be consumed with the notion of using an airplane to attack the United States.

 Looking at things from the Al Qaeda perspective, they achieved their greatest operational success on September 11^th 2001, more than 3,000 people were killed and the United States sense of invulnerability was shattered forever.

This one action compelled the United States into wars in Afghanistan and Iraq that appeared to turn Al Qaeda’s rhetoric about America being a crusader bent on conquering the Islamic world into prophecy. Why wouldn’t you want to repeat that success?

Al Qaeda has had some near misses with the underwear bomber and the printer bomb, showing us that they will continue to invent new ways to attack the United States.

 We are not going to have every answer for everything that terrorists can possibly throw at us. We’ve been blessed with some incredible good fortune and the ineptitude of terrorists.

 I think as Americans, we need to remember just how close Al Qaeda has come to attacking us before we dismiss their ambitions.

Al Qaeda: To Capture or Kill?

There’s an interesting debate taking place on Capitol Hill concerning whether we should capture or kill members of Al Qaeda.

 Proponents of capturing senior Al Qaeda members site the intelligence value that might be gleamed from their capture and interrogation. In addition, they also note that the drone strikes that have killed many militants have angered governments from Pakistan to Yemen.

Advocates of killing Al Qaeda stress a need to take Al Qaeda members out of the field of battle. An added consideration is the cost of drones compared to the cost of sending an intervention force into a Pakistan or Yemen.

 While I understand both viewpoints, I have serious reservations about capturing Al Qaeda operatives that cause me to lean towards the kill model pursued by President Obama.

Al Qaeda is not one entity, but rather a bunch of smaller organizations, who are largely operated with a fair degree of autonomy. The cell structure is typically smaller (3-4 people) as well, meaning that capturing even the most senior leaders of Al Qaeda may provide limited intelligence value.

 Capturing terrorist leaders also implies that once in custody, terrorists will tell the truth.

Pardon me, if I don’t feel comfortable trusting my security to the truthfulness of men who dedicate themselves to the task of convincing people to blow themselves up because they consider it sanctioned by Allah.

The British Stock Bomb Plot

Four British men were convicted last Wednesday for their role in an Al Qaeda inspired bomb plot that would’ve spread economic terror by bombing the London Stock exchange around Christmas 2010. They were reportedly inspired by the words of a U.S. born Muslim cleric.

Interestingly, even prosecutors conceded that the men had not planned to kill anyone, but that because of their chosen method meant that there was risk people would have been maimed or killed. Source: http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Latest-News-Wires/2012/0201/Four-British-men-admit-guilt-in-London-Stock-Exchange-bomb-plot

London has a lengthy history of being targeted by terrorists. This targeting will likely only intensify as the London Olympics approach. Terrorists would love to disrupt an event like the Olympic Games because of the international media attention attached to it.

 A would be terrorist would have a captive audience for their message. Fortunately, security officials have gotten better at securing “big targets”, but this still leaves a litany of soft targets. Unfortunately, even the best security can’t block everything.

Al Qaeda’s Ideal Recruit

The trial of Rezwan Ferdaus in Massachusetts may provide the ideal portrait of an American recruited to Al Qaeda. Ferdaus is accused of plotting to kill U.S. soldiers in Iraq and bomb the Pentagon and U.S. Capitol with explosives carried by model airplanes.

Al Qaeda seeks isolated people, who often feel humiliated by society with little knowledge of Islam. Furthermore, Al Qaeda wants men with no prior criminal record or affiliation with radical groups. Also Ferdaus studies physics, meaning that he had a certain degree of technical knowledge, that could benefit Al Qaeda. Source:

In the Internet age, its’ becoming easier for terrorist organization to do their work. Terrorists aren’t just locked into corners anymore, they have this vehicle were they can propagate their message with little difficulty. This case also illustrates the creative methods Al Qaeda and their recruits could use to attack the United States.

How do we combat radicalization efforts of Americans? It’s easy to say stop the isolation, but it’s a harder idea to implement in practice. We have so much fear and disconnection permeating society these days, that we don’t even know each other. That certainly plays a part in sad stories like this.