Wednesday, November 16, 2011

What Canos' Death Means

The killing of the supreme commandant of the FARC may actually hurt the peace process rather than helping it. Guillermo Leon Saenz, AKA Alfonso Cano was killed in a bombing raid on his encampment. Why is the death of a man several countries classify as a terrorist bad for a peace process, one might ask?

 While despite his continued advocation of force and guerilla tactics, Cano also sought dialogue and peace talks with Columbian presidents. It was reported he had largely convinced the FARC leadership of the peace process.

 With his death, the peace process has an uncertain future. His rumored successors may not have the same control over forces and a more ideological bend than Cano making peace difficult.

Although I’ve never been one to side with narco-terrorists, this killing may have made the job of the Columbian government harder, rather than easier. Now you face the prospect of FARC taking on a harder bend, or splintering into three or four guerilla movements instead of one.

Meaning that making peace with one, only solves 25% percent of your guerilla problem because they can only deliver their forces. My message for the Columbian government is the same one that I offer every government “You can’t kill your way to victory.”

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