Senegal Runoff

The presidential elections in Senegal appear headed for a runoff election, opening up the country for further political unrest.

Protests had broken out ahead of the February 26^th presidential election after a constitutional court ruled that President Abdoulaye Wade could run for a third term, in spite of a two term limit that Wade himself signed into law after his election in 2001. Wade had argued that he could run again because he had been elected under the old constitution, a claim the five judges all appointed by Wade, agreed with.

In spite of the recent protests, the election was declared peaceful and orderly by international observers.

 President Abdoulaye Wade received 24% of the vote. This virtually assures a run-off election between the two top candidates. In order to avoid a runoff, a candidate must receive more than 50% of the vote.

 International actors continue to express concern that Wade’s run for a third term and the accompanying protests will put the security of West Africa’s most stable democracy at risk.

When Romney Goes South

Mitt Romney appears headed to the Republican Presidential nomination, despite having not won a single Southern state, why is Mitt Romney so snake bitten in Southern primaries?

 First, voters in deep Southern states like Mississippi and Louisiana are largely conservative evangelicals- a group that Romney has struggled to connect with. Romney’s disconnection with Southern voters has served to draw out the Republican nomination process and give hope to Rick Santorum of forcing a convention showdown.

I think the Romney-South disconnection will resolve in the general election because the Southern United States leans heavily Republican during Presidential elections. There’s little doubt that Romney can beat Obama down south in a one on one election.

 But Romney fails to help himself with southern voters when he shoots off at the mouth about things like cheesy grits. It makes him sound really artificial and fake.

 Southerners are genuine people who don’t enjoy being talked to like their small children.

Perhaps Romney should worry more about Southern voters perceptions of him than cheesy grits and etch-a-sketches.

Okinawa Deal: A Half Hearted Effort

The United States military has had a presence in Japan since the aftermath of World War II. As part of the settlement of World War II, Japan has been prevented from having a large arsenal of defensive weapons and forces, which places the responsibility for Japanese security in the hands of the U.S. military.

 In recent years, there has been a clamor to reduce or eliminate the American military presence in Japan. A recent deal between the two governments makes some progress, but ultimately leaves big questions unanswered.

In the deal, Washington can reorganize military forces as part of its’ Pacific pivot and Tokyo can sell the 8,000 Marine cut progress to Okinawans who demand a decreased presence. Okinawans want the base in the center of Ginowa City closed, which Japanese governments have promised.

  Both governments have longstanding plans to move the base to a less populated village of Henoko, but the provisional governor there, has repeatedly blocked these efforts.

Source: http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2012/0209/How-Japan-US-may-break-18-year-deadlock-over-Okinawa-base

I think this move is a positive step forward. Although I’m sympathetic to the history that spawned such a security arrangement, the time has come to allow the Japanese to secure themselves. Japan has shown themselves to be a model citizen of the global community.

 My only objection to a more traditional military arrangement for the U.S. in Japan is Japan’s continued unease about their role in World War II. They can’t expect us to change a World War II arrangement when they haven’t come to grips with the war themselves.

 Ultimately, Japan should take greater responsibility for their own security.

India: Congress Party Downfall

The recent results of the Uttar Pradesh state election in India may be an ominous prelude of what is to come for the Congress Party, India’s ruling party during national elections in 2014.

 Out of an anticipated 100 seats, the Congress Party was able to win forty in the national assembly, a disappointing fourth place finish. The Congress Party has been hobbled by months of stagnant policy reforms, corruption scandals, a depreciating rupee, and high inflation.

These factors coupled with the advanced age of many of the party’s senior leaders like Manmohan Singh have led many to question the future of the party.

Congress parties’ poor performance may put the political future of Rahul Ghandi in doubt. He is the son of current Congress President Sonia Ghandi and heir apparent to the Nehru-Gandhi political dynasty and potential Prime Ministerial candidate in 2014.

 But without the ability to garner votes in Uttar Pradesh, which has eighty seats in parliament and 200 million people may delay his political career at a time when the Congress Party can ill afford it.

 Source: http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-South-Central/2012/0306/Elections-in-India-point-to-political-upheaval-ahead.

All of this is important because the Congress Party has been credited with high rates of economic growth that have rivaled China. Few, if any parties in India have the experience of governing that the Congress Party has.

 Any upheaval in government has pointed economic implications for India. Considering the problems that any party who takes control in India will likely inherit, there could be some rough days ahead for the world’s largest democracy.

Afghanistan: When Quarans Burn

The recent Quran burning by a group of US troops at Bagram Air Base and the subsequent protests that took place on the streets of Afghanistan have shined a disturbing light on a continued American insensitivity to the Afghan culture that is only adding to the difficult task of our mission there.

Afghanis are already enflamed over the continued use of nighttime air raides on family compounds and see the continued presence of American troops on Afghan soil as a humiliation. It is my fear that the recent burning of the Quran coupled with the recent massacre will send Afghanistan into an ethnic inferno.

Given the many recent missteps in Afghanistan, it seems wise to ask the question whether we should disengage from Afghanistan. There is a huge trust gulf between the military forces and The Afghan people that will only be emboldened with our continued presence.

 If we continue to disrespect the Afghan culture, whether we deem it rational or not. If we can’t accomplish trust and mutual respect than any mission we are hoping to accomplish becomes mute and pointless.

The American mission may lose itself in a cloak of imperialism, if we aren’t careful.

The NYPD and Muslim Monitoring

The AP reported that the NYPD conducted broad reaching monitoring of Muslim college students along the east coast, including Ivy League colleges of Yale and the University of Penn.

NYPD officials cite 12 people arrested or convicted of terrorism charges in the US and abroad who were once members of Muslim Student Associations (MSA) and the case of Jesse Morton, who pled guilty this month to posting online threats against the creators of South Park and had tried to recruit followers at Stony Brook University as grounds to pursue such monitoring practices and vow that no files have been kept on student activities

Source:http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Latest-News-Wires/2012/0220/New-York-Police-Department-monitored-Muslim-students-all-over-the-Northeast

This story worries me, in spite of the assurances by the NYPD. It says that because of a few actions by a small minority of Muslims that Muslims have been marked for monitoring. It’s a very slippery slope the NYPD has engaged in. My great fear is that surveillance programs will actually end up alienating the very Muslims that we desperately need to recruit to report suspicious activity within American Muslim communities.

Of further concern, if we create a society where its’ okay to monitor certain groups because of their faith, we risk tarnishing the very fabric of America and hand the terrorists of September 11^th a victory that they don’t deserve because they have changed America into a society of fear and police.

The Village Rampage

I was very saddend and angered to learn of the rampage of a lone U.S. soldier through a remote Afghanistan village that left seventeen Afghans civilians dead and five injured—including women and children.

 This is the last thing the American mission in Afghanistan needs given the already high tensions over the recent Quran burning and the ensuing protests. The Afghan people have grown tired of the perceived American population and this heinous incident may only strengthen the calls for America’s withdraw.

From a personal level, this episode is an insult to the good and decent men and women in uniform I’ve met through my classes and otherwise. We must not let the actions of one deranged man desecrate the good works performed by our upstanding men and women.

For military investigators, you need to conduct a thorough investigation that is open and transparent to the damning eyes of Afghan society. I know this probably isn’t the military way of doing business, but it’s the only way I see to attempt to save face here.