An Angle for Russian Intervention in Syria?

The Russian government has rejected the notion of international intervention because the conflict in Syria is a domestic matter to be handled internally.

 It is far from classified information that the two countries have been friendly since the heydays of the Soviet Union in the 1960’s and 1970’s but recent developments may make Russian intervention more likely.

First, Assad is having money issues and is looking towards his large friends in Moscow for help. The more damning scenario for Russian intervention is that Al Qaeda fighters in Syria are reported to have arrived in the country from Chechnya—where a Russian backed strongman has suppressed most attacks against the Kremlin.

Russia could use this as an entry point because the Chechen arm of Al Qaeda has been blamed for several attacks within Russia, and its’ entirely possible that the Putin government would want to take the fight to any Chechen member of Al Qaeda in an attempt to repair his own weakened domestic image.

 Of course, its also likely that Putin will say goodbye and good riddance to Chechen fighters because if they are in Syria, than they can cause Putin problems in Russia.

Vladimir Putin’s Syria Moment

Vladimir Putin has an image throughout many circles in the West as a cold, calculating, autocratic former KGB officer, who seems determined to return Russia to its past glory that he believes was flittered away by previous leaders.

His conduct during the recent crisis in Syria has done little to disbar this image from the international image. He has continued to back Bashir-al Assad in his murderous rampage against his own people, as Putin’s own government offers the token words of condemnation required of any Western government.

 Many have blamed the decades of friendship that exist between the Russian and Syrian states.

I believe that Putin is missing a major opportunity to enhance his image both at home and abroad. Putin is known for his tough as nails, take no prisoners attitude. This guided him during the incursion into Georgia in 2008 and his rather fiery rhetoric against the United States wanting to be a dominant power.

 It would fit with his character to take this same line with the Syrian leader, yet he appears unwilling to do so. He would earn respect by showing that he’s willing to go after his friends as well as his enemies.

 By not doing this, he’s only confirmed the West’s fears that he’s nothing but a dictator dragging Russia back to the Soviet glory days.

Come on Putin, aren't you man enough to scare anyone outside of Eastern Europe?

Putin, we Protest?

The recent Russian Duma elections have brought a rare sight to Russian streets: mass protests against Vladimir Putin and his system of managed democracy.

 The polls showed that United Russia had won with almost fifty percent of the vote--a far cry from their 2007 totals, amid allegations of voter fraud and ballot box stuffing. These mass protests seem to have caught everyone off guard because of their size and the youthful core of the protestors.

While no one is predicting a Putin collapse, these protests are a positive development for Russian democracy.

Putin has largely run a dominant party police state that has excluded opposition parties and restricted voter choice. No population is going to stay passive forever against such conditions. Still, most Russians continue to put up with the system of managed democracy and the need for a police state.

It was largely assumed before these mass protests that things were peachy under the Russian sun. These protests offer a flicker of hope for advocates of democracy within the Russian Federation, but don’t expect these protests to lead to anything other than a Putin crackdown because the majority of Russians stand firmly behind Putin.

The Reality of a Reformed Soviet Union

There’s growing concern among Senate Republicans in Washington that Vladimir Putin in seeking greater economic and political cooperation with former Soviet states is actually seeking to recreate the former Soviet Union.

I can’t speak to reality on the ground in Moscow, but I do know that the second coming of the Soviet Union won’t be quite like the first. The world has become a far more global place economically and socially. It isn’t so easy to just divide East-West and keep information out. I talked a little bit about this in Asia’s Censor Problem available in the archives. Russia needs the West as a trading partner for its’ oil and natural gas, so isolation as promoted in Lenin and Stalinist times, isn’t exactly an option.

 I keep hearing about how Russia is going to be rich as the West crumbles. Not necessarily, yes Russia has a large supply of oil and natural gas, but there going to have years of digging to get to the stuff. Furthermore, they’ve failed to diversify their economy so its’ not as fuel based. Until such action occurs, they’ll always be hostage to the commodities market.

If anything, Russia may accomplish Soviet Union-lite.

United Russia: Communist Blueprint?

United Russia emerged about a decade ago to create a vehicle for then Prime Minister Vladimir Putin to become President, following the expiration of Boris Yeltsin’s two terms. It is in this “Support Vladimir Putin” framework that the party has existed. It brought Dmitry Medvedev into the presidency in 2008 and will undoubtedly do the same for Mr. Putin in 2012. The party has been criticized as a “trade union of bureaucrats”, “party of rouges and thieves” and Mikhail Gorbachev called it a “bad copy” of the Communist party that ruled Russia until 1991.

 http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2011/1004/Putin-s-United-Russia-Communist-Party-clone-or-modern-democratic-force.

Lets look at some of the realities created by United Russia since its’ founding.

If you mention United Russia to a person outside of the Russian Federation, you’ll get many quizzical expressions, mention Vladimir Putin and your on stronger footing. Vladimir Putin is the face of that party. Therefore, the party largely exists for Putin and advocates of his policy.

 They’ve always made sure to have 2/3 majority of Duma seats necessary to amend the constitution to allow for longer presidential term limits, higher electoral thresholds and spates full of new state regulation that have heavily curtailed free speech and electoral choice within the Russian Federation.

 7% electoral thresholds coupled with United Russia’s media dominance makes opposition virtually impossible.

Let’s see: Highly personalized leadership, state control over media, little meaningful electoral choice…United Russia sure sounds like a copy of the Soviet Communist party.

Putin’s Eurasian Union

Current Russian Prime Minister and Future President Vladimir Putin has proposed something of a Eurasian Union that would contain Russia and states that formerly comprised the Soviet Union. I assume that any Eurasian Union would look similar to the European Union except with Russia as the dominant power.

 Putin made these remarks just days before a scheduled trip to China to sign a number of key trade agreements. I’d have to hear more about what Mr. Putin conceptualizes as a “Union” before I render a final judgment, but if he’s thinking of something like the European Union, the idea is a loser.

What if we have a Eurasian debt crisis like the one currently plaguing Europe? Russia is not so economically diverse that they could shoulder the load for large bailouts, meaning the heavy lifting would fall upon Russia, lets see how appealing a Union looks then.

 Furthermore, the region already has numerous problems with human trafficking and organized crime. Creating the kind of borderless society that the EU has would only seek to worsen these problems making it easier for Eurasia’s daughters to disappear into the seedy world of the global sex trade.

The only real advantage that I could see for Russia is a potential increase in influence among the former Soviet states, but even that could be marginal as one gets closer to China. The more I think about it, Russia would be merely the junior partner in any arrangement with China, which could be problematic given Russia’s tendency towards autocratic rule and desire to be the best country on the planet.

I see any Eurasian Union as a chaotic, fractionalized, mess and would plead with Mr. Putin “Just look at Europe.”