Russia is pumping millions of dollars into the long depressed Vladivostok region, mere hours from the Chinese border in anticipation of the September 2012 Asia Pacific Economic Conference in 2012.
Vladivostok was key military city during the Soviet Union, but when it colllapsed…the military left, taking many of the jobs with it. Now a region once lauded for having a glourious future, is a rusted out shell of its’ former self beseiged by corruption and an influx of Chinese workers, as many Russians leave the region seeking better opportunity.
Source: http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2011/0920/Corruption-hobbles-Russia-s-Far-East
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All of this activity is taking place as fear increases that the region will eventually be lost to China. This is an interesting dynamic as we have a shrinking Russian population and a rising Chinese population that is cramped for space on the mainland. My guess would be that China would seek to expand its’ territorial base any way it could.
If I was in Kremlin and wanted to keep the Vladivostock region, I’d launch a comprehensive development program there, that incentivizes Russians to move or stay there through jobs. And I’m not talking one off projects either, but jobs that provide meaningful pay and a chance for a future. Otherwise, you might as well surrender the region to China.
Wednesday, October 5, 2011
Tuesday, October 4, 2011
The UN’s Congo Problem
The elections are to be held soon in the Congo as of September 21st 2011 and the debate is on as to how much a role the Unitied Nations should play. Congo has of course been ravaged by a brutal series of wars that have exhibited the worst of humanity. The international community is obviously anxious to marginalize their role in these elections (90 percent funding in 06.) This is not without good reason, I mean if the Congo is to stand on its’ own than it needs to have its’ own expeditures for elections and not become just another “international African project.”
But the United Nations needs to step up and deal with the allegations of multiple voter registrations and the scores of election related human rights abuses. This task can be undertaken by merely acknowledging such abuses to the public. Without the acknowledgement of such activity, you run the very real risk of creating another African state with questions of electoral legitimacy. This is most certainly not the outcome the international donor communtity signed up for within the Congo.
Source: http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Africa/Africa-Monitor/2011/0921/Has-the-UN-Congo-mission-tried-too-hard-to-be-impartial.
But the United Nations needs to step up and deal with the allegations of multiple voter registrations and the scores of election related human rights abuses. This task can be undertaken by merely acknowledging such abuses to the public. Without the acknowledgement of such activity, you run the very real risk of creating another African state with questions of electoral legitimacy. This is most certainly not the outcome the international donor communtity signed up for within the Congo.
Source: http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Africa/Africa-Monitor/2011/0921/Has-the-UN-Congo-mission-tried-too-hard-to-be-impartial.
Lessons of the Ivory Coast
The swearing in of Alassane Ouattara as president of the Ivory Coast presents an interesting situation for the United Nations and African Union troops who haven’t exactly had sterling records in dealing with African problems in the past. Ouattara won an election over strongman Gbagbo who refused to accept the resaults.
In the resaulting conflict, Ouattara’s forces routed Gbagbo’s forces in a conflict that was largely dealt with domestically as the African Union and United Nations failed to act in due haste. Still the UN and the French were needed to take back the capital of Abidjan from Gbagbo loyalists.
The resault here is notable because the African Union and the international community backed Ouattara’s claim to the office, something that is far from certain in deliberations over anything African. If such support contines, also a questionable proposition, then there may be hope yet, for a democratic Africa full of hope, not misery.
An unfortunate reality here is that Ouattara is correct in asserting “Domestic problems should be taken care of by domestic forces.” For the future of the African continent, lets’ hope Africans remember this. The international community has let down Africa more times than I care to count. International forces should not relied upon for quick action.
Source: http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Africa/Africa-Monitor/2011/0921/Is-Ivory-Coast-really-a-great-model-for-international-intervention.
In the resaulting conflict, Ouattara’s forces routed Gbagbo’s forces in a conflict that was largely dealt with domestically as the African Union and United Nations failed to act in due haste. Still the UN and the French were needed to take back the capital of Abidjan from Gbagbo loyalists.
The resault here is notable because the African Union and the international community backed Ouattara’s claim to the office, something that is far from certain in deliberations over anything African. If such support contines, also a questionable proposition, then there may be hope yet, for a democratic Africa full of hope, not misery.
An unfortunate reality here is that Ouattara is correct in asserting “Domestic problems should be taken care of by domestic forces.” For the future of the African continent, lets’ hope Africans remember this. The international community has let down Africa more times than I care to count. International forces should not relied upon for quick action.
Source: http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Africa/Africa-Monitor/2011/0921/Is-Ivory-Coast-really-a-great-model-for-international-intervention.
Monday, October 3, 2011
Drug Money Talks?
In my previous post, I praised better intelligence as the reason why the United States has had such success recently at capturing or killing suspected terrorists. In Columbia, their intelligence agency The Administrative Department of Security (DAS) is now accused of passing intelligence documents to associates of noted cocaine dealer Daniel “El Loco” Barrera.
This is the latest scandal for the plagued intelligence agency that is facing a concentrated effort to disband it, following a very public scandal where members of the agency were accused of wiretapping oppisition politicians, Supreme Court justices, and human rights activists. Source: http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Americas/Latin-America-Monitor/2011/0920/Colombian-intelligence-agency-s-latest-scandal-leaking-docs-to-drug-lord.
The above allegations shed a disturbing light on why the Columbian government has had such a difficult time in dealing with the rampent drug cartel problem there. When the cartels are able to gain access to sensitive information, the Columbian government is never going to gain traction in their own drug war. If the security agencies have been corrupted, what hope can there possibly be that democratic mechanisms like the rule of law can mean more than words on paper?
This is the latest scandal for the plagued intelligence agency that is facing a concentrated effort to disband it, following a very public scandal where members of the agency were accused of wiretapping oppisition politicians, Supreme Court justices, and human rights activists. Source: http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Americas/Latin-America-Monitor/2011/0920/Colombian-intelligence-agency-s-latest-scandal-leaking-docs-to-drug-lord.
The above allegations shed a disturbing light on why the Columbian government has had such a difficult time in dealing with the rampent drug cartel problem there. When the cartels are able to gain access to sensitive information, the Columbian government is never going to gain traction in their own drug war. If the security agencies have been corrupted, what hope can there possibly be that democratic mechanisms like the rule of law can mean more than words on paper?
Barack Obama: National Security President?
It sure seems like we’ve been killing a lot of key Al Qaeda figures lately including yesterdays killing of the American born Anwar al-Awlaki. At the risk of inciting a hornets nest, Barack Obama is developing quite a mantle of national security successes that any Republican president would relish being able to run an election campaign upon. No candidate currently in the Republican field can boast anywhere near the national security resume of President Obama.
It strikes one as odd that all these terrorists are suddenly being blown away with precision and regularity over the last few months, while for seven years we fought the vaunted War on Terror and though there were successes, never netted the biggest fish.
There are two potential explanations. 1. Terrorists are becoming horrendous at hiding out or 2. Our intelligence has gotten much better. The latter explanation is probably much more likely. But this recent spate of success is baffling because many of these terrorists are exactly where people have been screaming they’d be for years.
Maybe there were different priorities within different administrations and I’m not a fan of conspiracy theories and the like. But I don’t grasp how we can put so much emphasis on terrorism in one administration with uncertain results, while in another we’re having a flood of terrorist casualties.
Unfortunately for President Obama, he will either be reelected or dismissed on the strength of the economy.
It strikes one as odd that all these terrorists are suddenly being blown away with precision and regularity over the last few months, while for seven years we fought the vaunted War on Terror and though there were successes, never netted the biggest fish.
There are two potential explanations. 1. Terrorists are becoming horrendous at hiding out or 2. Our intelligence has gotten much better. The latter explanation is probably much more likely. But this recent spate of success is baffling because many of these terrorists are exactly where people have been screaming they’d be for years.
Maybe there were different priorities within different administrations and I’m not a fan of conspiracy theories and the like. But I don’t grasp how we can put so much emphasis on terrorism in one administration with uncertain results, while in another we’re having a flood of terrorist casualties.
Unfortunately for President Obama, he will either be reelected or dismissed on the strength of the economy.
Sunday, October 2, 2011
The Case Against Chris Christie in 2012
I’m a Democrat admitting that I rather like Chris Christie and his pointed and blunt sound bite comments like when he told people to get the hell off the beach in Asbury Park as Hurricane Irene barred down on New Jersey. I think politics needs more men like Chris Christie who are willing to be blunt as a sledgehammer and tell things the way they are, as opposed to so many others who engage in half-speak and rhetorical exercises to avoid having to say anything meaningful and then blame everyone else when things go south.
Despite my admiration, if I had Mr. Christie’s ear today, I would strongly discourage him from a 2012 Presidential run.
That Republicans are looking for something different should be beyond dispute. This quest has gone on for months. Republicans will get excited about a potential candidate, said candidate enters race, and the excitement flickers out once they get a better look at the candidate. Just last month, the Republicans were clamouring for Texas governor Rick Perry. Well after a bad debate performace, now some are chanting for Chris Christie.
I’m very much afraid that he’ll end up like Perry and Bachmann before him: A hot candidate who fails the eye test when placed onstage. They’ll love ya right up until that first gaff on national television.
Despite my admiration, if I had Mr. Christie’s ear today, I would strongly discourage him from a 2012 Presidential run.
That Republicans are looking for something different should be beyond dispute. This quest has gone on for months. Republicans will get excited about a potential candidate, said candidate enters race, and the excitement flickers out once they get a better look at the candidate. Just last month, the Republicans were clamouring for Texas governor Rick Perry. Well after a bad debate performace, now some are chanting for Chris Christie.
I’m very much afraid that he’ll end up like Perry and Bachmann before him: A hot candidate who fails the eye test when placed onstage. They’ll love ya right up until that first gaff on national television.
Wars of Things
Wars of things and ideas like The War on Drugs or The War on Terror are fundamentally difficult to fight because they involve not just a conventional victory on the battlefield through military or police might, but rather a victory over certain cultures and ideas that propagandize drug use and terrorism. Although the jury is still out on the War on Terror, I consider the War on Drugs though undertaken with good intentions to be a largely failed effort.
A brutal war between warring drug cartel factions holds innocent Mexican citizens hostage on a daily basis and the drug cartels keep finding new and inventive ways to sneak their products into the United States like through the use of large underground tunnels that then funnel the drugs onto American streets. Indeed it feels like there are more drugs in America today than when the actual war started in the late 1980’s.
As for the War on Terror, if we are fighting a war to eliminate all terrorism from the globe then we’re going to lose because terrorism as a practice has existed longer than the United States. It’s not just one ideology or man that spawns terrorism but a diverse range of grievances and justifications and those cannot be killed through gun and bullet…stack bodies high and deep... it won’t matter in the endgame. Terrorist ideas need to be repudiated within their host communities that is the only way that a true victory can ever be claimed.
These wars of ideas have no start or end date and are difficult to battle plan for because whether drug cartel or Islamic extremist, your enemy will adapt to your tactics…there’s greater mobility, changing battlefields, and they have tremendous costs beyond soldiers or border patrol. There are wasted lives and human potential used up by drug addiction and Islamic radicalization, not to mention the domestic resources expended in a cause that may be the noblest idea, but the most impossible undertaking.
A brutal war between warring drug cartel factions holds innocent Mexican citizens hostage on a daily basis and the drug cartels keep finding new and inventive ways to sneak their products into the United States like through the use of large underground tunnels that then funnel the drugs onto American streets. Indeed it feels like there are more drugs in America today than when the actual war started in the late 1980’s.
As for the War on Terror, if we are fighting a war to eliminate all terrorism from the globe then we’re going to lose because terrorism as a practice has existed longer than the United States. It’s not just one ideology or man that spawns terrorism but a diverse range of grievances and justifications and those cannot be killed through gun and bullet…stack bodies high and deep... it won’t matter in the endgame. Terrorist ideas need to be repudiated within their host communities that is the only way that a true victory can ever be claimed.
These wars of ideas have no start or end date and are difficult to battle plan for because whether drug cartel or Islamic extremist, your enemy will adapt to your tactics…there’s greater mobility, changing battlefields, and they have tremendous costs beyond soldiers or border patrol. There are wasted lives and human potential used up by drug addiction and Islamic radicalization, not to mention the domestic resources expended in a cause that may be the noblest idea, but the most impossible undertaking.
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