I know many of the recent polls have the Iowa caucuses reduced to a three candidate race between Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, with Ron Paul in third. But anyone who takes these polls too literally may be in for a sting when the results roll in. The polls are a creation dependent upon the fragile nature of human beings. Put simply: PEOPLE LIE. It’s a stunning fact of humanity that PEOPLE LIE.
I was a campaign worker for two political campaigns in the 2004-05 range and when I called people to ask who they were planning on voting for…I usually got the “undecided” answer. When the election returns came in, the candidate I backed lost by double digits.
Polls are great theatre and they give media types and political junkies topics for conversation, but we should beware of making too much of any one poll. I could probably find a way to produce a poll that says Jon Huntsman will win in Iowa (despite not campaigning there), if one manipulates the numbers enough. That’s why I believe that Iowa is still anyone’s ballgame because polls have been known to decieve us before.